PHOENIX — Winter will officially be here before we know it. Recently, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, released their 2024-2025 winter outlook.
In order to forecast for the winter season, meteorologists look at trends in the Eastern Pacific. The big setup here is a slowly-developing La Niña. This will influence the weather across the country and right here in Arizona.
What is La Niña? Normally, trade winds push warm surface waters toward Asia. Sometimes, trade winds are stronger than normal. This results in cooler water in the Eastern Pacific. Usually when this happens, most of the south, including State 48, sees above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. But this winter, it's likely La Nina will be weak. The correlation to below normal precipitation is strongest for moderate to strong La Nina events.
Keep in mind, not all La Niñas end up drier than normal. According to the National Weather Service, there is still a 10%-30% chance of wetter than normal conditions this winter. The official forecast for this season takes into account other factors, like the latest climate modeling and climate change during the winter months.
VERSIÓN EN ESPAÑOL: El fenómeno meteorológico La Niña podría alterar el invierno en Arizona
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