PHOENIX — Winter will officially be here before we know it. Recently, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, released their 2024-2025 winter outlook.
In order to forecast for the winter season, meteorologists look at trends in the Eastern Pacific. The big setup here is a slowly-developing La Niña. This will influence the weather across the country and right here in Arizona.
What is La Niña? Normally, trade winds push warm surface waters toward Asia. Sometimes, trade winds are stronger than normal. This results in cooler water in the Eastern Pacific. Usually when this happens, most of the south, including State 48, sees above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. But this winter, it's likely La Nina will be weak. The correlation to below normal precipitation is strongest for moderate to strong La Nina events.
Keep in mind, not all La Niñas end up drier than normal. According to the National Weather Service, there is still a 10%-30% chance of wetter than normal conditions this winter. The official forecast for this season takes into account other factors, like the latest climate modeling and climate change during the winter months.
Watch 12News+ for free
You can now watch 12News content anytime, anywhere thanks to the 12News+ app!
The free 12News+ app from 12News lets users stream live events — including daily newscasts like "Today in AZ" and "12 News" and our daily lifestyle program, "Arizona Midday"—on Roku and Amazon Fire TV.
12News+ showcases live video throughout the day for breaking news, local news, weather and even an occasional moment of Zen showcasing breathtaking sights from across Arizona.
Users can also watch on-demand videos of top stories, local politics, I-Team investigations, Arizona-specific features and vintage videos from the 12News archives.
Roku: Add the channel from the Roku store or by searching for "12 News KPNX."
Amazon Fire TV: Search for "12 News KPNX" to find the free 12News+ app to add to your account, or have the 12News+ app delivered directly to your Amazon Fire TV through Amazon.com or the Amazon app.