ARIZONA, USA — If a federal government shutdown weren't looming this weekend, the "child care cliff" might be getting more attention.
Both events are pegged to the same deadline: Saturday, Sept. 30.
But in the case of the "child care cliff," providers and families in Arizona might not feel the pain for several months.
VERSIÓN EN ESPAÑOL: ¿Hay un inminente ‘borde del precipicio en el cuidado infantil’? Lo que los padres y cuidadores de Arizona deben saber
Here's what we know:
What is the 'child care cliff'?
A large chunk of federal pandemic-era funding that helped keep the doors open at child care centers expires on Saturday.
In Arizona, those "stabilization grants" - almost $600 million - have already been spent. The last checks went out in June, according to Barbie Prinster, executive director of the Arizona Early Childhood Education Association.
The association advocates for child care centers, ranging from small family-owned day care to national chains like Tutor Time.
Depending on their size, day care centers received from $1,000 to $30,000 a month in stabilization grants.
According to the Arizona Department of Economic Security, which administered the money, about 75% of the grants helped providers pay for staff. The balance went to mental health services, rent or mortgage payments and supplies.
"These payments were essential to keeping our child care industry stabilized," Prinster said.
Why 'cliff' matters
Access to affordable child care is a basic pocketbook issue for many Arizona families and, increasingly, a workplace issue for businesses struggling to retain employees.
According to a June report by the Annie E. Casey Foundation:
-The average annual cost for placing an Arizona toddler in day care in 2020-'21 was $10,883, one-third of a single mother's income and 11% of the median income of a married couple.
-One in six children under the age of 6 had a family member who quit, changed, or refused a job because of problems with child care.
Is it really a 'cliff'?
The federal funding to stabilize the child care industry had a set end date of Sept. 30. Has that left child care providers teetering on a fiscal cliff?
"It depends on how your business is doing," Prinster said.
"We have several providers that are well above their numbers pre-COVID. And then we have several providers that are still really struggling with enrollment and the workforce."
A widely cited June report by the Century Foundation projects that more than 99,000 Arizona children would be shut out of day care as a result of the "stabilization cliff," and 1,149 child care programs would shut down.
Prinster was skeptical of those projections. Based on the report's projections, almost half of Arizona's 2,500 licensed child care providers would close their doors.
Is Prinster aware of any of her members informing parents that they're going to have to change the way they do business because the stabilization money has dried up?
"Not yet (but) I'm not going to say that it's not happening," Prinster said.
'Huge' cliff for parents, providers next year
Kelly Murphy, interim chief executive officer of Children's Action Alliance, warns that the real pain for parents and providers - "a huge financial cliff" - looms in the middle of next year.
By the end of June 2024, federal assistance to cover the cost of day care will be exhausted.
The end of stabilization funds will be compounded by the loss of assistance for low-income families and subsidies for providers , Murphy said.
"It's a dual cliff that's coming together because both of these things are expiring at close to the same time," Murphy said.
All families could suffer, she said, if providers have to cut staffing or services, she said.
Governor's spokesman: 'Return to status quo'
The result could be the return of wait lists for parents seeking child care next spring or summer.
"It will be a cliff next year," Prinster said, "if we do not have any additional funding from our state general fund money. It will be a disaster, honestly, come July 1."
Christian Slater, spokesman for Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, had a different outlook.
"It's more of a gradual return to the status quo, rather than a cliff," he said.
"We're working with the Department of Economic Security to make plans for that transition.
"The wait list was completely cleared, thanks to the federal funding. There is the potential for it to come back when everything lapses next year."
Arizona hasn't funded child care for low-income working families in more than a decade.
Murphy wasn't optimistic about help from Congress or the Legislature, amid gloomy revenue forecasts.
"It doesn't look like any money is coming from either of those two sources anytime soon," she said.
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