PHOENIX — Presidential election years can greatly impact our economy, specifically real estate market trends. Traditionally, election years mean lower-than-normal activity on the housing front, according to a Valley real estate expert.
VERSIÓN EN ESPAÑOL: Así es como se ve afectado el mercado inmobiliario por una elección presidencial
A report from Meyers Research showed that home sales can dip as much as 15% in November when there’s an election compared to non-election years. That research included the last 13 election-year cycles prior to 2023. It also found that housing sales aren’t necessarily lost in an election year; they’re pushed to the next year.
An expert out of Princeton blamed the slower sales period on those who were reluctant to buy because they were not sure how the election would affect their finances. Halpern Residential Founder, Trevor Halpern, said in Phoenix, the local market is not experiencing the traditional presidential election real estate decline. Halpern said under-contract transactions are up about 11% over this time last year and pending contracts are up about 7%.
“I think there's a lot of people who have been so fatigued from one, things being expensive, two, interest rates being up, three, waiting for things to pan out in the national election, that they just say, listen, I just have to do what's right for me right now, or I have to do what's right for my family right now," Halpern said.
Halpern said buyers and sellers are breaking norms by choosing to move forward with home transactions, and this is different than he’s seen in past elections. He added, that trends are shifting toward a buyer's market.
Even with the shift, Halpern said the most important move to make is a financially sound one, considering current market conditions. Halpern added mortgage rates are volatile right now, between the Fed cutting rates in September and a recent jobs report.
He estimated whatever the Fed does after the presidential election, will set the tone for the country economically for a good period of time. In Phoenix, Halpern said sellers need to price and prepare their homes correctly to attract buyers. He also recommended buyers make moves that are best for them. And in the Phoenix market, there’s a little more supply than demand.
“You as a buyer right now has some power now," Halpern said. "If we see mortgage interest rates continue to adjust downward, the rule of thumb is that for every 1% the mortgage rates come down, we see a million buyers across the country enter the marketplace. So you as a buyer right now has some really good negotiating power.”
Halpern said while there’s no crystal ball providing all of the answers, a year to 18 months from now when mortgage rates could be lower, there might not be as much buying power, and if the trend continues, you could be paying more money for the same home.
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