PHOENIX — Not that long ago, there wasn't a clear-cut signal on whether there would be an early or late onset of the monsoon. The shift from El Niño to La Niña is helping to give meteorologists a better idea of how the start of Monsoon 2024 could pan out.
Larger-scale trends like El Niño and La Niña have the potential to influence storm track patterns in the southwest. With La Niña in place, stronger trade winds allow cooler-than-normal waters to build in the Eastern Pacific. This setup typically shuts down reoccurring showers and storms in the Southwest. As a result, Arizona usually trends drier and hotter than normal.
In addition to La Niña, above-normal soil moisture could delay the onset of high pressure. When we think of high pressure, we think of sunny skies and fair-weather days; in the Desert Southwest, high pressure helps to transport moisture into the region to fuel storms.
La Niña combined with above-normal soil moisture will likely delay the onset of Monsoon 2024. Don't be surprised if we have to wait until much later in the summer for the monsoon to really show up.
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