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What does El Niño mean for Arizona?

Across the U.S., the Pacific Jetstream shifts further south, putting Arizona in a bullseye for above-average precipitation.

ARIZONA, USA — El Niño is a warming of the waters off of the Peruvian coastline. 

This happens when equatorial trade winds weaken, pushing warmer water closer to the South American coastline.

Credit: 12News

This warmer water in the Southern Hemisphere has global impacts on weather. Across the United States, the Pacific Jetstream shifts further south, putting Arizona in a bullseye for above-average precipitation.

During El Niño years, the Northern Plains are warmer than average and the Midwest is drier than average.

El Niño also has an impact on the tropics! There are typically fewer major hurricanes in the Atlantic during El Niño years because more wind shear is present.

Credit: 12News

We are currently in an El Niño Advisory. 

Since May of 2023, the ocean water off of Peru has warmed and given us signs that another El Niño is on the way. While the pattern is just getting going, it is expected to get stronger by the 2023-2024 winter months.

Credit: 12News

Regarding the benefits of above-average precipitation for Arizona, we typically ONLY see that when El Niño lasts into the winter months. El Niño does not have much of an impact on the summer monsoon.

Our projections for Monsoon 2023 call for above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation, which is typical for monsoon seasons during an El Niño pattern.

Credit: 12News
Credit: 12News

This is our 7th El Niño since the year 2000. There is a strong correlation to above-average precipitation during each winter when El Niño is present.

This pattern bodes well for Arizona for the upcoming winter months. Get ready for possibly a wetter-than-average winter!

Credit: 12News


Arizona Weather

Arizona has seen its fair share of severe weather. Here is a compilation of videos from various storms across the 

Grand Canyon state.

Before You Leave, Check This Out