PHOENIX — The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season started on June 1 and will run through Nov. 30.
This is the most aggressive hurricane season NOAA has ever forecast. The Atlantic Basin could see up to 25 total named storms, up to 13 hurricanes, and up to seven major hurricanes (category 3 storms or higher). The average number of total named storms is 14. Typically, the Atlantic hurricane season averages seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The main reason why the tropics will likely be extra busy this season is the sea surface temperatures. The ocean waters are warm. The current sea surface temperatures are what you'd usually find in August or late summer; we are months ahead of schedule. There is already plenty of fuel in place for hurricane development.
The average peak of hurricane season arrives later in the summer - August, September, and into October.
Closer to home in Arizona, we continue to watch the eastern Pacific. Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific started on May 15. We are noting the pattern shift from El Nino to La Nina. With La Nina in place, the desert Southwest will likely trend hotter and drier than normal.
This setup will likely delay the onset of Monsoon 2024. At the same time, La Nina will likely produce upper-level winds over the Atlantic that are more favorable for hurricane development.
We also monitor the eastern Pacific in hopes some of that tropical moisture will translate to showers and storms in Arizona. Sometimes hurricane and tropical storm remnants help produce much-needed rain in State 48.
Typically, the first week in July is when monsoon storms start to fire up. Remember, with La Nina it's likely we'll see a slower start to the monsoon.
>> Download the 12News app for the latest local breaking news straight to your phone.
12News on YouTube
Catch up on the latest news and stories on the 12News YouTube channel. Subscribe today.