Almost two months into the NHL season, five points separate the Eastern Conference's worst team from a wild card spot, and six points separate the West's worst from a playoff position. There is a seven-point difference between the East's best team and the second wild card, while 10 points separate those teams in the West.
Which in many words says one thing (aside from there's a lot of hockey left to be played): There's a lot of parity (or mediocrity, if that's how you want to view it) in the NHL, and It's unclear if there are any great teams.
Do the Chicago Blackhawks, leading the league with 35 points, stand out as a fierce contender? Credit to them: They have survived with a 30th-ranked penalty kill and an injury to Jonathan Toews, who has struggled with 12 points in 25 games. But they are a top-heavy team, with their stars required to do the heavy lifting.
They are at 49.8% in possession, they are in the bottom-third in the league in scoring-chances for (46.5%), and despite being 11th in offense, they are 25th in expected goals-for percentage (which weighs shot quality) at five-on-five. They can thank Corey Crawford’s league-leading five-on-five save percentage for buoying them.
Then there’s the Montreal Canadiens, who at 16-5-2 are second in the league with 34 points. The Canadiens are an improved team over last season, thanks to Carey Price’s health. But a surefire Cup contender now?
With all the talk of Shea Weber, who undoubtedly has made a mark offensively, adding bite to the back end, the Canadiens rank 23rd in limiting shots against and 24th in scoring chances against. Their offense is good enough, with Alexander Radulov adding a spark and improving its depth, and seven players recording at least five goals. But they are 7-5-0 in one-goal games, so it’s not like they are blowing out teams, either.
The 16-8-1 New York Rangers began the season by scoring five goals seemingly every other night. But now the offense has dried up. Coincidence? Not quite.
The Rangers are a speedy, transition offense that can make opponents pay for mistakes in an instant. But their forwards need to get the puck to make it happen. They are routinely being outshot (47.1% possession ranks 27th) and are caved in their own zone for long stretches. That’s not the recipe for success, no matter how much depth the offense has. Though the offense is skilled, it won’t shoot 11.6% at five-on-five for much longer. This team looks similar to last season’s, ripe for an early playoff exit.
The Pacific-Division leading San Jose Sharks are 14-9-1 and lurking, but are not exactly hitting their stride, at least offensively. Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau have combined for 21 points, and now Tomas Hertl is injured. They are scoring 2.42 goals per game, 20th in the NHL. They play the “right way,” spending more time in the oppositions zone (53% ranks third), creating chances and suppressing attempts.
It wouldn't be a surprise to see this veteran group get better as the season goes on.
The 14-7-3 St. Louis Blues, after losing several important players in the offseason, were expected to take a step back. Instead, they are fourth with 31 points, and it's not a fluke. Perhaps we underestimated a group that boasts a great coach in Ken Hitchcock, a game-breaking scorer in Vladimir Tarasenko and a defense with size and puck-moving ability.
Their play away from the puck has allowed them to stay consistent; despite being 19th in goals against -- a team save percentage of .901 has hurt them -- they are first in suppressing shot attempts and third in limiting scoring chances. The struggling Jake Allen will be the key.
Sidney Crosby, with 16 goals and 25 points in 18 games, might be playing his best hockey. Add that to a reigning Stanley Cup champion, and that might mean the 14-7-3 Pittsburgh Penguins, with 31 points, are the closest to great. Lost in Crosby’s season is the production of Evgeni Malkin (23 points), Phil Kessel (22 points), Patric Hornqvist (16 points) and Kris Letang (12 points).
The Penguins are scoring more than three goals per game, and possession is also on the right side (51.1%). The slight concerns include defensive zone coverage that has not been as stout as last season and a goalie timeshare that has led to inconsistent results lately.
All of this is to say there's a lot left to sort out this season.
Stick tap to corsica.hockey for all of the stats. Possession is adjusted for score, zone and venue.
