The 2016 NFL season is already halfway complete. There have been plenty of surprises — pleasant (Dak Prescott) and baffling (Carolina) — that have altered the way we viewed the league just two months ago.
Knowing what (we think) we know now, here are USA TODAY Sports' record projections for the remainder of the year. We also offer a playoff forecast that attempts to honor our preseason picks (please, no nasty tweets, Patriots Nation).
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys (11-5): Tough road games (Minnesota, Pittsburgh) and the Tony Romo dilemma are ahead, but the lead may be insurmountable in an otherwise average division. (Preseason prediction: 5-11)
New York Giants (10-6): With five of next seven at home and some patsies (Bears, Browns) still to come, things are lining up for Giants to snatch a wild-card berth. (Preseason prediction: 8-8)
Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Their lack of firepower combined with some daunting non-division games (Falcons, Seahawks, Packers) makes .500 seem a reasonable outcome. (Preseason prediction: 4-12)
Washington Redskins (6-9-1): Just when things were looking up, they learn four-game ban of LT Trent Williams coincides with most brutal stretch of their schedule. (Preseason prediction: 7-9)
NFC NORTH
Minnesota Vikings (12-4): They've hit a rough patch, but defense should overmatch several upcoming foes. And just maybe they get a late boost from Adrian Peterson. (Preseason prediction: 11-5)
Green Bay Packers (11-5): Upcoming three-game road trip will be a challenge, but it appears Aaron Rodgers is back to being the passer opponents have long feared. (Preseason prediction: 12-4)
Detroit Lions (7-9): Inability to establish run or stop pass — Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are licking their chops — suggest they don't have a big push in them. (Preseason prediction: 7-9)
Chicago Bears (3-13): The bulldozers and backhoes are already approaching for what promises to be near total teardown in the offseason. (Preseason prediction: 6-10)
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons (10-6): The defense's struggles on third down and in the red zone remain causes for worry ... but not too much if Matt Ryan maintains his MVP level. (Preseason prediction: 7-9)
Carolina Panthers (9-7): Do they have the heart of a champion? We expect second-half surge, but it probably falls short amid three West Coast trips and that suddenly vulnerable D. (Preseason prediction: 12-4)
New Orleans Saints (9-7): They're starting to roll, and only two teams left on their schedule currently have a winning record. There's an opportunity here. (Preseason prediction: 7-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Maybe they'll finally win at Raymond James Stadium when Bears visit Nov. 13. Otherwise, expect Bucs to be cannon fodder from here on out. (Preseason prediction: 8-8)
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks (9-6-1): They're usually lights out after October. But with so many injuries and some tricky matchups ahead, they may limp to NFC West crown. (Preseason prediction: 11-5)
Arizona Cardinals (8-7-1): It may already be too late to reclaim their mojo, especially since they'll play five of their final seven games on the road. (Preseason prediction: 12-4)
Los Angeles Rams (6-10): These traveling fools still have flights to New York, New Orleans and New England ahead. Will they also make leap of faith to Jared Goff? (Preseason prediction: 5-11)
San Francisco 49ers (2-14): It's going to feel like a death march to the finish, but we're optimistic Chip Kelly will somehow avoid a 15-game losing streak. (Preseason prediction: 2-14)
AFC EAST
New England Patriots (14-2): They're going to lose another game? Well, they almost always falter in Miami and will likely have nothing at stake there —aside from beach time — in Week 17. (Preseason prediction: 11-5)
Buffalo Bills (8-8): LeSean McCoy's hamstring injury killed their momentum at the worst time. They'll fall short of the playoffs for the 17th straight season. (Preseason prediction: 8-8)
Miami Dolphins (8-8): At a minimum, it seems Adam Gase, Jay Ajayi and that magnificent O-line have them swimming in right direction. But schedule is about to get choppy. (Preseason prediction: 7-9)
New York Jets (7-9): Despite turnaround, they could flame out at any time. And when it's time to unveil Bryce Petty and/or Christian Hackenberg, look out below. (Preseason prediction: 9-7)
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5): Provided the Big Three of Big Ben, Bell and Brown remain intact for the duration — a big "if" — they're still a legit Super Bowl threat. (Preseason prediction: 12-4)
Cincinnati Bengals (9-6-1): Talented group is finally hitting its stride ... right? Offense has piled up nearly 1,000 yards last two weeks with Tyler Eifert back. (Preseason prediction: 11-5)
Baltimore Ravens (7-9): Even during 3-0 start, they never looked in sync. Expect them to go Bye, Bye, Bye with Steelers (twice), Cowboys and Patriots on the way. (Preseason prediction: 9-7)
Cleveland Browns (1-15): The analytics are stacked (for now) against Hue Jackson's troops, but they're clearly better than the 2008 Lions (and 2016 49ers for that matter). (Preseason prediction: 3-13)
AFC SOUTH
Tennessee Titans (9-7): You don't want to clash with our sleeper team. They're physical, run the ball effectively, and Dick LeBeau's defense is stout. They can win this division. (Preseason prediction: 4-12)
Houston Texans (8-8): They're winless on the road and undefeated at home. That pattern may very well hold rest of way for this Jekyll and Hyde bunch. (Preseason prediction: 9-7)
Indianapolis Colts (6-10): Andrew Luck is having an MVP-caliber season. It's a shame he's getting so little support from the rest of the roster. (Preseason prediction: 6-10)
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13): Unfortunately, it seems Gus Bradley's upbeat message is now falling on deaf ears. These underachievers will need shock to the system. (Preseason prediction: 9-7)
AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5): Could another huge second half be teed up? Three of their final four are in Arrowhead, and OLB Justin Houston's return seems close. (Preseason prediction: 10-6)
Oakland Raiders (11-5): If they'd play a scintilla of defense, they'd be in mix for first-round playoff bye. But ending 14-year playoff drought is still a nice consolation. (Preseason prediction: 10-6)
Denver Broncos (10-6): Foreboding schedule. They're on road five times, and the home lineup brings Chiefs, Patriots and Raiders. Wild card still seems viable. (Preseason prediction: 9-7)
San Diego Chargers (6-10): They've been snakebit all year. And it may only get worse if relocation whispers again build into a very loud distraction. (Preseason prediction: 5-11)
AFC playoffs
Wild card: (6) Broncos def. (3) Chiefs; (5) Raiders def. (4) Titans
Divisional: (2) Steelers def. (5) Raiders; (1) Patriots def. (6) Broncos
AFC Championship Game: (2) Steelers def. (1) Patriots
NFC playoffs
Wild card: (3) Falcons def. (6) Giants; (4) Seahawks def. (5) Packers
Divisional: (4) Seahawks def. (1) Vikings; (3) Falcons def. (2) Cowboys
NFC Championship Game: (4) Seahawks def. (3) Falcons
Super Bowl LI: Steelers def. Seahawks
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