PHOENIX — Big changes are in the works affecting your choices at the ballot box in 2022.
Four of Arizona's nine members of Congress may have to decide whether they'll run in a new district - or run at all.
Hundreds of thousands of Arizona voters could be in for a surprise when they learn they're represented in Congress by a member of the other party.
On this weekend's "Sunday Square Off," the Arizona Mirror's Jeremy Duda breaks down what the state's new congressional maps could look like for the November 2022 elections.
Duda covered Arizona's last redistricting in 2011 and has attended virtually every meeting during the current go-round.
2022 Midterm Preview With a Year to Go
Also on "Square Off," our political insiders - Democratic communications consultant Julie Erfle of Erfle Uncuffed, and Paul Bentz, senior vice president for research and strategy at the Republican firm HighGround Consulting - discuss what Arizona can learn from the off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey.
The 2022 midterm elections are one year from Monday.
How Redistricting Works
Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission - the five-person, voter-approved body that redraws legislative maps once every 10 years - could wrap up its mapmaking for 2022 within the next month or so.
The next step is public hearings through Dec. 4 on the draft maps for the state's nine congressional districts and 30 legislative districts.
State legislators and members of Congress are also expected to weigh in before the commission approves the final maps.
The nine new districts' relative competitiveness will be the top issue. You can see the competitiveness breakdown here.
One thing to know as we get ready for a game of political musical chairs: Under the U.S. Constitution, members of Congress are only required to live in the state that houses their district, not in the district itself.
Four Lawmakers Have a Choice to Make
Duda explains why four lawmakers have choices to make:
- On the Democratic side, Congressmen Greg Stanton of Phoenix and Tom O'Halleran of Sedona have been drawn into districts more favorable to Republicans.
Stanton might move to a new district, CD4. It's far from where he lives, on Phoenix's northwest side, but the new district contains many of the voters from his current district.
On the downside, the mapmakers' data shows Stanton would have less of a Democratic edge than he does now - less than 6 percentage points, based on the results of recent elections.
- In O'Halleran's case, his new Republican-leaning district, CD2, would match him up with far-right Republican Congressman Paul Gosar of Flagstaff.
Gosar could move to the solid Republican CD8, the so-called "River District" along Arizona's western border.
O'Halleran might have to decide whether to run or retire.
While CD2 leans Republican, it has the largest share of Native American voters by far of any of the nine districts - 21% in CD2 versus low single digits for the other districts. The Native vote has been a solid Democratic bloc over the years.
Lesko Just 4 Houses Away From District
- Republican Congresswoman Debbie Lesko of Peoria also has some decisions to make.
She was drawn into a new district that places her home just four houses away from a new district that includes many of her current voters.
If she stayed put, Lesko would have to run against Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego in a majority Democratic district.
That's not going to happen.
Barring any updates to the draft map, Lesko could run in the northwest Valley's new CD4, which Stanton is likely to abandon. That district has a 4-percentage-point Republican advantage.
Lesko could also go for the River District that Gosar might be looking at.
Voters Might Get Disoriented
- The new maps could be disorienting for voters.
Come November 2022, a Republican Peoria resident who regularly cast a ballot for Lesko could find herself having to choose between Democrat Gallego and a new Republican candidate in the overwhelmingly Democratic new district.
A current Gallego constituent in central Phoenix wouldn't see Gallego on the November ballot. Republican Congressman David Schweikert of Fountain Hills would be on the ballot in the new CD1 if he made it out of a Republican primary.
The new district is one of two clear toss-up districts on the draft map.
"Sunday Square Off" airs at 8 a.m. Sundays on 12 News, after NBC's "Meet the Press" with Chuck Todd.
Sunday Square Off
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