PHOENIX — Minutes after Arizona's Supreme Court ruled to uphold a Civil War-era abortion ban, November's election was top of mind.
“If past is prologue, this is going to have a deep and lasting impact on politics in Arizona," said Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes.
Stan Barnes, president of Copper State Consulting Group, said it's Republican candidates who will likely pay the price.
VERSIÓN EN ESPAÑOL: 'Un mal día para los candidatos republicanos': Un experto político analiza las implicaciones del fallo sobre el aborto en Arizona
“If you are interested in Republican success at the ballot, this is a bad day," Barnes said. "This is a very bad day for Republican candidates who are hoping to run for office and win public office."
Barnes describes Arizona's Republican Party as fractured, and while Democrats are united when it comes to their stance on abortion, the GOP is not.
He pointed to the reaction following Tuesday's court ruling as an example. Republican lawmakers were divided. While some distanced themselves from the ruling, calling for the 1864 law to be repealed, others voiced support. Some toed the line, saying they wanted to take a closer look at the ruling.
“We've had the Trump wing versus the McCain wing. Now we have the pro-life wing versus the more pragmatic, pro-choice wing. And it was complicated for Republicans in terms of running for office in this environment. It's now even more complicated," Barnes described.
The issue of abortion drives voter turnout and Barnes anticipates that to be the case come November.
“There are no doubt voters all over Arizona who are going to hear this story and say, 'We’ve gone from legal abortion to illegal abortion in one decision? Which party is going to fix that?'" Barnes said. "Forgetting what you personally believe about this difficult issue, from a purely political point of view, Democrats are having the best day of the year, the best day all the way to the election. And the Republicans are scrambling and trying to figure out what to do next to connect with voters on this very difficult issue."
Cheryl Bruce believes she has the fix. She is the campaign manager for Arizona for Abortion Access.
“Access to abortion is a majority support issue," Bruce said.
Arizona for Abortion Access is a campaign trying to put abortion rights on the November ballot, giving voters the choice between the 1864 near-total ban or enshrining abortion rights in the Arizona constitution.
As of last week, they had collected 500,000 signatures, well above the 383,000 required. Bruce said they were flooded with calls and emails after Tuesday's decision, evidence voters are motivated.
“We're feeling very confident. I don't want to take away from the devastating news today. This is a near-total ban. And unfortunately, we're not going to be able to vote on this measure until November. And so that does leave many people in a precarious state as they are seeking abortion care. Lives are really at risk here," Bruce said. "But I do think that we are seeing even more of a resolve now from voters in Arizona to pass this measure.”
Bruce added they are hoping to collect 800,000 signatures before the July 3 deadline. They will then go through a court process to ensure the measure makes it onto the ballot.
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