PHOENIX — What did Kari Lake learn from losing?
We'll find out at a North Scottsdale rally Tuesday night, when the former TV news anchor formally announces that she's running in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate.
It's an odd question to ask about a candidate who refuses to concede she lost the 2022 race for governor to Democrat Katie Hobbs.
Lake has claimed, without evidence, that the election was stolen or rigged.
She has filed several election-related lawsuits and appeals. Her lawyers have been sanctioned for lying to the court.
The 17,000-vote defeat still stands.
"People chose not to vote for her," said Chuck Coughlin, a longtime political consultant at HighGround Consulting in Phoenix and adviser to Republican governors. He's now a registered independent.
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Lake's version of what happened in 2022 omits the fact that she wasn't the top Republican vote-getter in the state or in Maricopa County. Exit polling shows she alienated Republicans and large numbers of independent voters.
"There were Republican voters and others that chose not to vote in her race at all," Coughlin said. "What does she have to do to recruit those types of people back into the fold?"
Here are five things to know ahead of Lake's rally:
Will Lake stand by Trump?
Lake is one of Donald Trump's most devoted defenders, even as he faces 91 felony charges, including counts tied to attempts to overturn the 2020 election.
Lake has been a campaign surrogate who, at times, appears to be auditioning for the VP spot on his presidential ticket.
She amplified Trump's attacks on the late Sen. John McCain.
They are an echo chamber of conspiracy theories about their respective election defeats, with no evidence to support claims that have eroded faith in elections.
Lake has gone as far as declaring the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol was "staged."
"All that Jan. 6 was, was a staged riot to cover up the fact that they certified a fraudulent election," Lake told the Steve Bannon "War Room" podcast in August.
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She doesn't appear to be backing off Trump, the frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination.
According to a Wall Street Journal report, the Lake campaign strategy will keep her close to Trump and focus on turning out conservative Republicans.
Politically, the Trump era has been a disaster for Arizona Republicans. They've lost three U.S. Senate races, three statewide offices and a presidential election. The Republican-controlled state Legislature could go Democratic in 2024 for the first time in decades.
Coughlin borrows a line from a consulting colleague about what Lake needs to do: "More Reagan, less Trump."
"Definitely say you've learned, definitely say we have to have a bigger Republican Party that's more inclusive, and I want to listen to Arizona voters and I want to represent Arizona voters."
"If she were to say something like that," Coughlin said, "it may give her the opportunity to reset. I don't believe she will."
Will national GOP back Lake?
The Trump question isn't just political - it's financial.
By some estimates, campaign spending in the Arizona Senate race next year could top $250 million.
The leader of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, a potential significant outside spender for a Republican nominee, had some advice for Lake: knock off the election talk.
"To win Arizona as Republicans, it's a very winnable race, you want to make sure you're focused on the future," Montana Sen. Steve Daines, NRSC chairman, told CBS News. "They don't want to hear about grievances of the past."
Arizona isn't necessarily a "must-win" for Republicans in order to take back control of the Senate. Races in other states might offer more favorable pickup opportunities.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has said he'll take a "wait-and-see" attitude toward spending money in the Arizona. He appears to be pulling for independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, though she hasn't announced whether she's running for re-election.
In the Wall Street Journal report, Lake said she would vote for McConnell as Senate Republican leader "if he was the top Republican choice."
Two months ago, Lake said of McConnell's health: "Something's going on there, and he's going to make all the decisions about who represents the people of Arizona? I don't know, that doesn't make sense to me."
Where does she stand on issues?
The presidential ballot in November 2024 will likely include a ballot measure asking Arizona voters to enshrine reproductive rights in the state Constitution.
Abortion was a wedge issue that turned suburban women against Republican candidates in 2022, after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Roe vs. Wade.
Lake's positions have shifted.
She told the Wall Street Journal last month that she supports Arizona's ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
During last year's Republican primary for governor, Lake described Arizona's near-total Civil War-era ban as "a great law."
Also during the primary, Lake told a Newsmax interviewer: "Abortion is not health care. It is the killing, it is the sacrifice, it is the execution of a baby in the mother's womb."
But one month before the general election, Lake said on "Face the Nation": "I will uphold the law, whatever that law is."
Coughlin said Lake, like other Republican candidates this cycle, has plenty of other issues to work with.
"Most Americans ask the question, 'Is America on the right track? And the overwhelming response is 'No,'" Coughlin said.
"She certainly will have some ideas about that. How to fix the border... what would you do to bring down gas prices... food inflation? Those are the practical types of things she could speak to that would draw larger constituencies to her."
In the area of foreign affairs, a Senate domain, Lake has embraced far-right Hungarian autocrat Viktor Orban as a model leader. She traveled to Hungary on a junket with far-right Arizona Congressman Paul Gosar. Lake has described Gosar as "truly one of the greatest Congressmen this country has ever seen."
What will Sinema do?
The Senate field is still unsettled.
Congressman Ruben Gallego of Phoenix is the prohibitive Democratic nominee. His campaign has posted three consecutive quarters of more than $3 million in donations.
The wild card is independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party a year ago. She has yet to announce whether she will seek a second term in the Senate. The timing of her announcement remains unclear.
Recent polls by Public Policy Polling show Gallego leading hypothetical three-way and two-way match-ups.
A survey commissioned by the Replace Sinema PAC indicates Sinema could be a spoiler for Gallego in a three-way race, by taking away votes. His lead over Lake in a head-to-head race shrinks with Sinema in the field.
Neither of the PPP polls, nor a new poll by Republican-aligned pollster National Research, show Sinema with a path to victory.
The National Research survey shows Lake leading a three-way race and a dead heat in a two-way matchup.
"The only thing you can say for certain (in a three-way race) is somebody could win with 34 percent of the vote," Coughlin said.
"It's crazy to think that you could win a Senate election with that."
Lake faces a GOP primary
Lake's GOP primary opponent, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, says she encouraged him to run.
Now that Lake herself is in the race, Lamb's not backing down.
"Here's the thing: I'm no quitter," Lamb told 12News late last week. "I didn't get in this race to lose. If I didn't think I was gonna win, I would have thought twice about it. I know I'm the right person for the job."
Lamb noted that he's won two elections as sheriff of Arizona's third-largest county. "This is not my first rodeo."
What about Lamb's policy differences with Lake?
"I'm not sure what Kari's policies are," he said. "My policies are, we need to secure our Southern border, we've got an economy that's got to get under control.
"We've got rising crime across this country, except in our county. We're doing pretty good here because we enforce the rule of law."
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