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Arizona's 'blue mirage': Why election races got much more narrow overnight

Any Arizona resident who went to bed at 10 p.m. on election night is seeing very different election results waking up Wednesday morning. Here's why.

ARIZONA, USA — The first batch of Arizona's election results Tuesday night showed Democrat candidates winning across the board.

At around 9 p.m., Democrat candidates Mark Kelly, Katie Hobbs and Adrian Fontes all had well over 10-point leads over their Republican competitors.

But Arizonans woke up Wednesday morning and saw a much closer election.

It's being called a "blue mirage" or "red surge," and is the result of a shift in Arizonans' voting habits.

What is a "blue mirage" or "red surge"?

"Last night we saw the 'blue mirage,' this morning we're seeing something different... a 'red surge'," Team 12's political insider Brahm Resnik said Wednesday.

A "blue mirage" or "red surge" characterizes when the first few batches of votes lean towards Democrat candidates, but the rest of the ballot drops lean Republican.

Arizona is unique in its "blue mirage" effect because of a change in the state's voter habits. Democrats have shifted to early voting while Republicans shifted towards in-person voting on Election Day.

"This is all about voter behavior," Resnik said. "Republicans show up the day of the vote and they vote in person. Democrats fill out their early ballots when they get them and put them in the mail."

This shift may largely be attributed to Republican-led attacks on mail-in voting systems across the country, claims which led to the 2020 Arizona Senate GOP's recount of Maricopa County's ballots.

RELATED: Arizona Republican Party wants to throw out the way 90% of voters cast a ballot

In previous elections, however, Arizonans saw a different kind of mirage.

Not the first time Arizona has seen a "mirage"

Back in 2018, the state saw a "red mirage" and a "blue surge."

Then-incumbent Republican Senator Martha McSally had a large lead on election night against her opponent, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. But after the first ballot drops, subsequent drops continued to lean Democrat, eventually securing the win for Sinema.

The "red mirage" led to numerous claims from then-President Donald Trump of Arizona election fraud, signaling the start of what would become a primary talking point for the Republican Party in 2020 and beyond.

PREVIOUS 2018 COVERAGE: 

During the 2018 election, Republicans were much more likely to vote by mail compared to Democrats. Data from TargetSmart shows that 2018's early and absentee ballots were used by Republicans 53% compared to Democrats' 41%.

The gap between the two parties' use of early ballots has closed in the years since 2018, with the same data now showing 50% Republican usage and 44% Democrat usage.

Trends are one thing, but the final results are another. Stay with 12News through the week as ballots continue to be counted on our live election updates page here.

Decision 2022

Arizonans will go to the polls this November for the midterm elections. Here's everything you need to know leading up to election night.

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