PHOENIX — Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remain neck and neck in the polls, but political prediction markets are forecasting different odds.
Millions of dollars are pouring into political prediction markets, which are trading platforms where bets are placed on the outcome of the upcoming United States presidential election among other popular races.
“It’s like the stock market. As a candidate becomes more popular, the price on them will increase," Steve Bittenbender, a gaming analyst and writer for Gambling.com, said.
Betting odds are in favor of Trump winning over Harris by a 61 to 39 percent margin as of Thursday night, according to Kalshi.
Those odds tell a different story than most election polls that have Trump and Harris in a dead heat.
“If you look at sort of the average of polls that are coming out, whether it be in the swing states or at a national level, a lot of the little leads that are either given to Harris, plus one, two point here, to Trump, plus one, two point there, all really fall within the margin of error in a lot of these samples. Right, so we don’t really know if its swinging one way or another," Ulrich Jensen, an associate professor at Arizona State University, said.
Americans can now legally bet on political elections. It's led to conversations on social media, but when 12News asked voters if they'd ever wager money on who will make it to the White House, they all said no.
“I don’t think I would bet on an election. It seems like it’s not really right," Sam Smith said.
“I don’t gamble, number one, and it seems to undermine our democratic process. I would probably encourage people to go vote before betting on something," Jennifer Russell said.
Those voters had varying opinions on whether predictive markets or polls offered a more accurate forecast of Election Day.
“Money talks more than words," a voter said.
“It’s hard to really tell what’s the truth," Smith said.
“I would look at both. I would use both. I wouldn’t just go with one or the other," Raymond Chavez said.
Analysts said it's hard to compare the two.
Jensen said prediction markets tend to be more volatile, often changing based on current events.
He said polls offer more stability. Most voters in blue and red states already know who they're voting for. It's the swing states that will likely decide the outcome.
“Certainly if you look at the polls, I think we will be anticipating a closer election than the betting market is assuming right now," Jensen said.
Bittenbender said history also shows the market becomes more fluid on Election Day and in the days surrounding it.
“It wouldn’t surprise me if we had that same kind of volatility on election night or on the days leading into the election," Bittenbender said.
While political prediction markets are becoming a popular way to forecast upcoming elections, experts said it's important for voters to look at the entire picture.
“I would look at it as another piece of information as people are educating themselves on the election, what might happen but at the end of the day, no one has a crystal ball and neither does the oddsmakers," Jensen said.
Experts strongly encourage people who are considering betting on the election to only wager the amount of money they're willing to lose.
You can now watch 12News content anytime, anywhere thanks to the 12News+ app!
The free 12News+ app from 12News lets users stream live events — including daily newscasts like "Today in AZ" and "12 News" and our daily lifestyle program, "Arizona Midday"—on Roku and Amazon Fire TV.
12News+ showcases live video throughout the day for breaking news, local news, weather and even an occasional moment of Zen showcasing breathtaking sights from across Arizona.
Users can also watch on-demand videos of top stories, local politics, I-Team investigations, Arizona-specific features and vintage videos from the 12News archives.
Roku: Add the channel from the Roku store or by searching for "12 News KPNX."
Amazon Fire TV: Search for "12 News KPNX" to find the free 12News+ app to add to your account, or have the 12News+ app delivered directly to your Amazon Fire TV through Amazon.com or the Amazon app.
Decision 2024
Track all of our current updates with the upcoming elections in Arizona on our 12News YouTube channel. Subscribe for updates on all of our new uploads.