PHOENIX — For decades, Republicans have controlled the Arizona Legislature, encompassing the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Political experts say that could change in November as Democrats make a charge to win four key swing districts in Maricopa County.
Those districts are LD2, LD4, LD9 and LD13.
- LD2 is in north Phoenix northeast of Interstate 17 and the Loop 101.
- LD4 is in Paradise Valley and Scottsdale, up to north of the Loop 101.
- LD9 is in parts of Mesa south of the Loop 202 highway.
- LD13 is in parts of Chandler and west Gilbert.
"Of those, three of them are held by Republican, one are held by a Democrat, so Republicans playing a little more defense there with only the one offensive opportunity," Republican strategist Brian Seitchik said of the Senate seats in those districts.
On the House side, it's much more split. In some races, Democrats are trying to unseat a Republican and vice versa in each of these four highly-competitive districts.
Seitchik said Democrats have outspent Republicans considerably on state House and Senate races. He said some of that money is coming from "out of state interests," like special interest groups in California.
"This is the first time in nearly 50 years that Democrats are going for complete control of the Legislature and the governor's office all the way since Governor Goddard in 1964, and seemingly Katie Hobbs is all in on trying to get a Democratic legislature," Seitchik said.
The political tide has been turning over time, political experts say, to be where the political landscape is today with Republicans enjoying a one-seat advantage in both chambers.
"We used to call the Democrats a pizza caucus, because you could feed the whole caucus with one pizza," expert Chuck Coughlin said.
Coughlin said the caucus has grown substantially over time to the point where they are increasingly hopeful that they can secure the majority in at least one chamber.
The key for both parties is appealing to independent and non-partisan voters. Experts say there are a large swath of voters in each of these swing districts that want solution-based policy decisions, and not the divisive rhetoric from both sides of the aisle.
"There are people who used to be a Democrat or used to be a Republican and have said 'I've got enough of that. I don't need that anymore. And I'm migrating to this other party line, or non-party line,' and they tend to be more issue focused, more solution-oriented, and less partisan," Coughlin said.
The work candidates put in will certainly play a role as well. In these districts, a boots-on-the-ground effort can sway undecided voters.
"They don't want the finger pointing and the blame. They want to hear what you're going to do to help them," Coughlin said.
Often times, for undecided voters, it can come down to what issues mean the most to them at the time they are filling out their ballot. That reality could be what decides which political party has the power in Arizona in 2024 and beyond.
"Republicans need to remind folks of the issues that really matter, what affects them on a daily basis, and that is inflation. Every time they go to the supermarket and they have to buy groceries for their families, prices are up. Also immigration on the border," Seitchik said. "If Republicans are able to make the case that those are the issues that matter to voters (at) the presidential level, the federal level and the statewide level, it's going to be a good night for Republicans. If voters, these swing voters, walk in and abortion is top of mind, it's probably going to be a good night for Democrats here in Arizona."
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