PHOENIX — A New York Times/Siena College poll shows former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden among likely voters in five swing states, including Arizona.
Trump leads Biden by 5% in Arizona, according to the survey, and by 10% in Nevada. They are both states Biden won in 2020.
Voters surveyed said they trust Trump over Biden on the economy by a wider margin compared to any other issue.
Many Arizona families are struggling
Arizonans Tasha and Kenneth Needham are not inclined to vote for either candidate if the election were held today, they said. They are socially liberal but they don’t have confidence in the way President Biden has steered the economy.
“When you’re trying so hard to get your life in order and you get beat down and the government doesn’t care, it feels like nobody cares about us,” said Tasha, a mother of two. The couple say they are seeking better paying jobs to keep up with higher rent and expenses, but have not had luck.
How Democrats and Republicans address concerns of families like the Needhams could go a long way to deciding who wins the White House and other key races next year.
Biden counts major legislative victories
The Biden administration continues to tout two legislative victories; last year’s CHIPS Act, designed to stimulate the economy with high tech jobs, and the Inflation Reduction Act, which lowers some prescription drug prices and invests in clean energy.
There are signs of improvement. Unemployment is at near-historic lows and inflation is down more than half compared to last year.
But slowing inflation does not equal a drop in prices.
Grocery staples like eggs, meat and dairy aren’t likely to ever go back down to where they were two years ago. Those higher prices motivate the Needhams to travel across town to a bargain grocer selling rejected foods in order to feed their family of four.
“Thank god for this place because it really does help us on our grocery bill,” Kenneth said.
Trump wants a 10% tariff on imports
The clear frontrunner among Republicans, former President Trump, proposes repealing portions of the Inflation Reduction Act that are intended to curb climate change. Trump also proposes implementing a 10 percent tariff on all imports into the U.S. as a way to boost domestic production. That proposal is controversial even among conservative economists.
Mesa voter Tyrone Lofton said if he were to vote today, he would put his trust back in Trump.
“Every politician has their faults. But I would say the track record of Trump, I think with business, he obviously has proven his success,” Lofton said.
Trump viewed as a threat to democracy
Mesa voter Marty Gump is leaning towards Biden.
“Definitely not Trump,” she said. “I don’t think people in the U.S. are as nice as they used to be. He’s the one I blame.”
Gump is willing to be patient through tough economic times for a longer goal.
A recent poll by the Public Religion Research Institute found nearly 6 in 10 Americans believe a re-election of Trump would threaten democracy and America’s way of life.
The former president’s encouragement of the January 6th attack and his refusal to accept losing the election worries many voters like Gump.
Biden supports unions, Trump supports owners
How to raise wages will also be a major issue heading into next year.
President Biden’s support of labor unions was recently punctuated by his decision to break tradition and publicly join auto workers on the picket line September. It was a first for a sitting president. The United Auto Workers eventually brokered a deal.
Former President Trump, on the other hand, has generally supported business management over unions. During his presidency, Trump dramatically cut taxes to the wealthiest Americans and rolled back bargaining tools for unions.
Guns, abortion and foreign aid also on voters’ minds
Arizona voters are weighing other issues as well. Jolana and her mom Delores want more federal investments to end homelessness and help those addicted to drugs, typically Democratic positions. But they also say they believe the U.S. is spending too much on foreign aid, a position held by many Republican lawmakers.
“I mean, of course we have to look at other countries but we have a lot of issues here that are being overlooked,” Jolana said.
Noah Ford opposes more restrictions to gun ownership, but he supports a woman’s right to have an abortion. He’s also undecided.
“I do feel women get a right to choose that. That’s their choice, their bodies,” Ford said.
How voters balance social values with their pocketbook could determine which way they vote next year.
As for the Needhams, they believe age is also a factor.
“Honestly, I think we need new people. There’s a lot that the older generation is stuck in and they’re not making way for people who don’t think like them,” Tasha said.