PHOENIX — Once again, in 2024, Arizona voters will have a big say in who controls the nation's Capitol: the White House, the U.S. Senate and, the U.S. House of Representatives.
Democratic candidates are lining up to run in one of the state's two Republican-held districts where a flip would move the party closer to winning the five seats it needs to take back the House.
With the party primary still 15 months away, here are four things to know about the looming fight for the First Congressional District seat held by seven-term Republican David Schweikert.
Grant Woods' Widow in race
Former TV journalist Marlene Galan-Woods formally announced her campaign for Congress on Wednesday, becoming the fifth Democrat in the race.
"I have never had running for office on my bingo card," Galan-Woods, the widow of former Attorney General Grant Woods, said in an interview.
"After Grant died (two years ago), I was left with a really profound sense of responsibility. I could not ignore what was going on."
Galan-Woods, who is 59, said she changed her voter registration from Republican to Democratic as Donald Trump rose to power about eight years ago.
Her political positions reflect the Democratic Party mainstream: defending reproductive rights, passing "common sense" gun reform, and protecting Medicare and Social Security.
"I firmly believe that most of us live somewhere in the middle, a little to the left a little to the right," she said.
Crowded Dem field
Galan-Woods is joining a crowded field in the First District primary: former state and congressional candidate Andrei Cherny; two political newcomers, orthodontist Andrew Horne and former Red Cross executive Kurt Kroemer; and State Rep. Amish Shah, an emergency room doctor.
The district covers northeastern Maricopa County, dipping as far south as central Phoenix; moving north to Scottsdale and Paradise Valley, one of the wealthiest communities in the county; and then heading northeast to Schweikert's home of Fountain Hills.
The district has one of the highest average incomes and education levels in the state. The voting-age population is 80 percent white.
District trending blue
Here's why Democrats have high hopes for ousting Schweikert:
The redrawn First District was rated as competitive when Arizona went through redistricting in 2021.
Democrats connected to the mapping process warned it might go Republican in 2022, but would likely flip to Democratic in 2024, a presidential year that would drive higher Democratic turnout.
That proposition will be tested.
Over the last decade, voters who live in the district have swung from red to light blue.
Sam Almy at Uplift Campaigns provided data showing those voters' choices at the top of the ticket since 2012:
2012: Republican nominee Mitt Romney was their choice for president by 17 percentage points over Barack Obama.
2014: Republican Doug Ducey, in his first run for governor, won by 15 points.
2016: The GOP victory margin plunged to 4 points for Donald Trump.
2018: Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema won by 2 points.
2020: President Joe Biden carried the district by 4 points over Trump; Biden won Maricopa County by 2 points.
2022: Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly's victory margin was 7 points.
The 2024 outcomes depend not only on the quality of and funding for the Democratic congressional nominee but also on the person at the top of the ticket. If it's Trump for a third time, that could trickle down. The down-ballot impact of a possible three-way U.S. Senate race is also a wild card.
Schweikert squeaked by in '22
Schweikert's a survivor.
He won re-election last year by less than a percentage point in the toughest campaign of his congressional career. That came after a brutal Republican primary, in which Trump endorsed Schweikert.
Now in his seventh term in Congress, Schweikert has been a Republican gadfly on economic issues but has few significant legislative accomplishments.
Schweikert's most lasting mark is a rare reprimand and a $50,000 fine by the House of Representatives for violating 11 ethics rules.
It's unclear whether he'll be primaried again in '24.
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