FLAGSTAFF, Ariz. — If Arizonans are looking for reasons to be optimistic about the drought, a leading expert in civil and environmental engineering is providing a fountain of hope.
“Doom and gloom predictions are completely wrong,” said Benjamin Ruddell, director of both the National Water-Economy Project and the FEWSion computer modeling program at Northern Arizona University and Arizona State University.
Ruddell’s cutting-edge research on global supply chains and threats posed by climate change has been used by government agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security.
He predicts as the U.S. Southwest gets hotter and drier, Arizona will shift away from its reliance on agriculture and actually prosper as an urban, manufacturing hub of technology.
And yes, he said, there will be enough water to make it happen.
“We are smart enough,” he said. “Within five or 10 years we’re going to have this thing solved, even with the drying climate.”
'We are smart enough to adapt'
Indeed, scientists predict heat waves and water scarcity present daunting challenges for cities in the desert Southwest. Some researchers even warn major counties in Arizona, including Maricopa, are at risk of being uninhabitable within 30 years.
Ruddell said he believes new technology, regional water agreements, lifestyle changes, and perhaps most importantly, a reduction in agriculture production for products like alfalfa will allow Arizona to adapt.
As a professor at NAU’s School of Informatics, Computing and Cyber Systems, Ruddell’s research includes models predicting the impact of the western water crisis.
Here are four ways Ruddell predicts Arizona will evolve amid the aridification of the desert southwest.
1. Arizona will grow less food
The southwest produces incredible yields of agriculture and is a global exporter of food to regions including eastern Asia, Canada and New York City. Ruddell predicts those exports will be reduced. According to FEWsion computer modeling, Arizona is ranked second only to New Mexico of states where food supply is exposed to water stress.
“One way or another we are going to end up growing less food and especially less food for animals like cattle feed,” Ruddell said.
Farmers who don’t have first-priority water rights will continue to lose allotments and various regions of the world will feel the impact.
“When you get farmers losing water, which is happening today, the people who start seeing a rise in food prices are not primarily in the southwest. They are primarily in other places,” Ruddell said.
As the U.S. adapts to changing climate patterns, farming of some crops will migrate northward into the U.S. and Canada, Ruddell said. One consequence of the shift in agriculture is that food will need to travel longer distances.
He said new research shows the urgent need to reduce food waste.
“We waste roughly half of the food we produce. If we could reduce food waste, we could significantly reduce food production and all of the environmental impacts and stresses related to it,” Ruddell said.
2. Meat and dairy are poised to become more expensive
Barring new short-term solutions, expect meat and dairy to become more expensive in the Southwest and especially in Los Angeles, Ruddell said. The primary reason is explained in a 2020 report published by Ruddell and colleagues in Nature Sustainability https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0483-z that mapped the dependency of the world on goods derived from Colorado River water. It concluded irrigation of cattle-feed crops like alfalfa to be the greatest consumer of river water in the western U.S.
“The sweet spot on that supply chain is that a ton of water gets used to grow alfalfa,” Ruddell said.
Ruddell and co-authors proposed temporary, rotational fallowing of alfalfa crops to reduce water shortage risks. Cattle feed such as alfalfa is considered one of the lowest “value uses” of water so it naturally will be one of the first resources to get cuts, Ruddell said.
The impact will be felt locally because unlike a commodity like grain which can be shipped around the world, dairy and beef industries depend heavily on local consumers.
“It’s actually big urban consumers of beef and dairy products in the western U.S. who are most affected out of anyone in the world by a western water shortage,” Ruddell said.
Innovative solutions such as lab-grown beef could fill the gap but they are still unproven on a mass scale. Researchers are also raising environmental concerns about those products.
3, Older, larger Arizona cities will support continued growth
Ruddell said Gov. Hobbs’ announcement on Thursday to halt construction of groundwater-reliant homes is the right call because it protects communities with existing water rights that rely on aquifers.
“This is effective government regulation in action to protect Arizona's residents and businesses, based on longstanding sustainability law and the best available science,” he said.
Ruddell believes older, larger Arizona cities with existing water rights and diverse water portfolios will continue to support growth. The re-shoring of manufacturing is attracting more people to the state, especially Maricopa County. Demand for homes will likely push up property values.
“The manufacturing industry in Arizona is exploding,” Ruddell said.
4. 'We’re going to have this problem solved'
Taking many factors into account, Ruddell believes Arizona’s water future is bright.
“The biggest issue is not what the climate gives us. The biggest issue is what we decide to do with it,” Ruddell said. “We are rapidly shifting from an agricultural economy. The state is going to be more and more of an urban place in the future, a high-value economy.”
Other researchers do not share Ruddell’s outlook about the future of life in Arizona, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns a host of other factors – heat, air quality, and illness – will complicate all aspects of life in the desert. Federal health experts report the effects of climate change including extreme heat pose the greatest threats to racially and socioeconomically marginalized communities.
There is no doubt state and local governments face difficult decisions as they balance adaptation measures with climate justice policies.
But in terms of water, Ruddell believes ingenuity will win the day.
“I think Arizona has enough water, if we are smart and we manage it well, for hundreds of years of aggressive growth ahead of us,” Ruddell said.
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