PHOENIX — Thursday's 6.4 magnitude earthquake in California was felt by many people across the Valley, which had us wondering if Arizona could ever experience an earthquake of that magnitude?
12 News spoke to Dr. Michael Conway from the University of Arizona Friday afternoon. He’s one of the premier researchers in the country when it comes to seismic activity. As we found out --- the answer is yes --- but knowing exactly when is impossible to know.
Since 1852, the state of Arizona has had 3,500 seismic events ranging from barely detectable to a whopping 7.5 magnitude quake near Douglas. That happened all the way back in 1887 causing extensive damage.
Thursday’s earthquake in Ridgecrest, California was felt by people across Arizona --- including right here at our station in Downtown Phoenix. We asked Dr. Michael Conway, who's a world-renowned geologist, how that's possible?
“Well, those earthquake waves continue through the Earth’s crust and continue to propagate outwards,” said Conway.
Dr. Michael Conway keeps track of seismic activity for the U.S. Geological Survey in Arizona. He says there’s no major faults running across the Phoenix metro area, but there are several parts of Arizona that could get a major earthquake in the 6 to 7.0 range, which include the following:
The Imperial Fault about 50 miles west of Yuma that could rupture into a 7.0 magnitude in the next 40 years.
The Little Chino and Big Chino Faults near Prescott are capable of delivering between a magnitude 6.0 and 7.0 magnitude earthquake.
The Lake Mary Fault that runs from Mormon Lake to City Boundary of Flagstaff is capable of a 7.0 magnitude. It could have a major impact on Flagstaff.
Believe it or not --- Arizona has between 50 to 100 quakes a year --- most go unfelt. The biggest ones hit near Prescott, Flagstaff and the New Mexico Border. Dr. Conway says the likelihood Phoenix would ever experience a really strong earthquake is highly unlikely, and when and where they’ll hit is a guessing game.
"We can't predict earthquakes, but we can forecast them. Nobody can tell when the Imperial Fault in California is going to rupture, but they’ve done a lot of work, like trenching, so they can forecast and tell what the likelihood an event will happen,” Conway said.
If you’d like to know more about the seismic activity in Arizona Dr. Conway suggests you Google natural hazards in Arizona. He said that will bring you to Arizona’s map for seismic activity and a lot of other information.