TUCSON, Ariz. — COVID-19 cases in Arizona are growing at such a fast rate that the state's health care systems will be overwhelmed by the end of the month, according to a report issued Sunday by a University of Arizona expert.
And that's without taking into account a rise in cases due to Thanksgiving exposures.
Cases in Arizona are being diagnosed at a rate of at least 390 per 100,000 residents.
If that trend is not slowed in the next one to two weeks, University of Arizona professor Joe Gerald says cases will overwhelm the ability to provide hospital care by the end of December.
His report shows that hospital COVID-19 occupancy is increasing and is on a course to exceed peaks by mid-December and could completely overwhelm by the end of the month.
With the flu season happening parallel to the current COVID crisis, hospitals could see strain into January and February.
For the week ending on Nov. 29 alone, there was a 13% increase in diagnosed cases.
That number comes from a 6% increase from the week before that. Gerald's report shows that, based on the numbers, the backfill from those weeks will add another 2,000 cases to the already startling tally.
As mortality rates continue to increase, Gerald says, it is likely that Arizona will record more than 500 COVID-19-related deaths per week by Christmas.
Travel and social gatherings between Thanksgiving and New Years are likely to accelerate transmission, Gerald says.
He suggests a shelter-in-place order to slow the transmission rate and prevent overwhelming hospitals. Last week, he called for a mask mandate until Dec. 22 to reduce transmission rates.
"The only unacceptable course is inaction," he wrote in his report. "Without intervention, we are on a track to experience a major humanitarian crisis during the Christmas-New Year holiday season."
Hospitals are beginning to postpone scheduled procedures and moving health professionals around to take on new roles and more hours to compensate for the growing demand.
To keep yourself and family members protected, Gerald's report suggests wearing a mask in public, avoid social gatherings, maintain physical distance from people not from your household and avoid more than 15 minutes of contact in indoor spaces when physical distancing in inadequate and adherence to masks is low.
To read the full report, click here. Gerald is expected to release another report on Dec. 11.
For updates on COVID-19, subscribe to the 12 News YouTube page.