ARIZONA, USA — Editor's note: The above video aired during a previous broadcast.
Arizona saw its first major spike in coronavirus cases, deaths, and hospitalizations in June of last year, but such a spike this year is becoming less and less likely according to public health experts.
Arizona State University's COVID-19 Modeling Group provided data in the most recent COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Outlook that shows such a drastic spike that the state saw last year is statistically impossible this year, even in the worst-case scenario.
"Under their worst-case scenario where no new vaccinations are initiated after April 28th, case rates will slowly trend upwards and remain in the substantial category through much of the summer.," the modeling group said.
"Even under this pessimistic scenario, there is little-to-no risk of a summer resurgence on par with June 2020. Altogether, this is really good news."
The most recent version of the outbreak outlook also shows coronavirus cases have changed little over the past two weeks, with a four percent decrease from last week's tally.
Dr. Joe Gerald, one of the authors of the outlook, has even made the decision to soon discontinue the publishing of the outlook due to the low rates of cases that continue to be reported.
"The good news is that another summer resurgence like June 2020 seems off-the-table even with more transmissible variants becoming predominant," said Gerald, an Associate Professor at the University of Arizona's Zuckerman College of Public Health.
"With this bit of good news, it is about time for me to return to my pre-COVID academic life."
The next scheduled update on May 21 will be the last outlook report, unless something unforeseen occurs, according to Gerald.
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