ARIZONA, USA — August and September are going to be difficult months for Arizona amid rising COVID-19 cases, especially in the state's schools, according to public health experts from the University of Arizona.
The researchers published their most recent COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Outlook on Friday and it shows that the state is headed to another outbreak like the one seen at the beginning of June 2020.
In fact, the transmission rate this summer is outpacing last summer, according to the report.
"This time last year, COVID-19 rates were lower, 116 versus 195 cases per 100K residents per week, and were improving, -40 versus +51 cases per 100K residents per week," the report reads. "Therefore, August and September are setting up to be difficult months indeed."
Schools are expected to drive more of the rise.
"Resumption of in-person instruction in K – 12 schools and universities in August will lead to frequent school-associated outbreaks and will undoubtedly increase community transmission without vaccine or mask mandates, weekly surveillance testing, and adequate ventilation," the researchers said in the outlook.
The increase of COVID-19 illnesses within schools can largely be attributed to recent Arizona law which prohibited schools from implementing mask mandates within their buildings, according to researcher and program director of the university's public health policy and management, Joe Gerald.
"Governor Ducey with aid of the legislature has knocked K -12 and universities down, taken our lunch money, and dared us to do something about it," Gerald said in an email distributing the report. "Looks like they are going to get away with it yet again."
The state is now experiencing high levels of transmission that will be sustained for weeks to come, according to the outlook. New cases within Arizona were being diagnosed at a rate of 195 cases per 100,000 residents per week as of Aug. 1, with that rate increasing at 51 cases per 100,000 residents per week.
"Arizona is now experiencing 50 deaths per week. This amount will increase in the coming weeks and will almost certainly exceed 100 per week by the end of August," the report said.
Testing rates for the virus have also increased, with test positivity among PCR tests rising to 25% this past week.
COVID-19 in Arizona
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