ARIZONA, USA — Arizona hospitals are headed towards a "major crisis" and smaller counties in the state are being affected by COVID-19 more than larger counties, a recent report from the University of Arizona said.
The report, titled "COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Outlook," was published on Nov. 20 and looked to provide an update on the state of COVID-19 in Arizona.
The report highlighted many changes the state has seen in the past weeks since multiple metrics have started to increase, including hospital occupancy, test percent positive, and high COVID-19 cases in areas that saw low amounts of cases earlier this year.
Below are the three things you should know about the data from the recent UArizona report. You can read the full report here.
Arizona hospitals to face "major crisis" during holiday season
Holiday travel between Thanksgiving and New Years', as well as the return of snowbirds to Arizona and this season being viral respiratory season, is expected to increase hospital bed usage dangerously.
"The fall-winter viral respiratory season plus the return of part-time residents who winter in Arizona will place increasing strain on our hospitals through January," the report said.
"Holiday travel and social gatherings between Thanksgiving and New Years are likely to increase transmission levels even faster than current rates."
Total Arizona ICU bed occupancy is already at 90%, with COVID-19 patients using 27% of those beds before people traveled for Thanksgiving.
If current trends continue, Arizona hospitals will experience a "major crisis" during the Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year holiday season, according to the report.
"The lowest bed count during the summer outbreak occurred on July 10 when only 946 general ward beds were available. On November 20, only 944 beds remained available," the report said.
"In the ICU, the nadir of available beds occurred on July 7 when there were only 145 available beds. On November 17, 174 beds remained available."
Smaller counties seeing higher COVID-19 spread compared to larger counties
Graham, Yuma, Apache, and Coconino counties in Arizona are affected by COVID-19 at greater rates than larger counties like Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal, the report showed.
Graham has the largest amount of weekly COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the state at 582. Yuma, Apache, and Coconino counties followed, at 426, 415, and 389 respectively.
Other small counties have also broken case amount records recently since the July outbreak.
"The following counties have set new weekly Covid-19 case records since the July outbreak: Pima, Coconino, Cochise, Apache, Yavapai, Gila, Graham, and Greenlee counties," the report said.
Lack of testing capacity, delayed case reporting points to COVID-19 growing faster than estimated
The test positive rate for traditional polymerase chain reaction (PCR) COVID-19 tests has increased to 16% this week. However, a greater demand for testing and a lack of options to test may mean these numbers are higher than health officials currently estimate.
"The growing mismatch between testing capacity and demand indicates viral transmission is growing faster than the estimates provided in this update," the report said.
Additionally, delays in case reporting in Arizona's counties are making it hard for health experts to accurately measure trends in COVID-19 transmission.
You can see the full "COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Outlook" from the University of Arizona below.
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