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VERIFY: Can an increase in temperatures lead to an increase in violent crime?

A University of Southern California study shows the link, but heat and crime statistics in Arizona don't show a correlation.

PHOENIX — Temperatures are towering into the dangerously high triple digits in the Valley, with a heat warning starting Thursday. But can the heat make us more violent?

A recent study conducted at the University of Southern California showed a correlation between an increase in violent crime rates in Los Angeles and days over 85 degrees. 

Could the same be said in Arizona, which had 128 days that touched the triple digits in 2018?

The USC study said the impact was felt more in poorer areas.

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But this report is just the latest: The New York Times reported on the correlation in 2018. The Times found nine out of 10 cities studied had higher murder rates on days above 85 degrees. The effect was felt most prominently in cities with colder winters, like Chicago or Milwaukee.  

According to psychologist Farrah Hauke, excessive heat can cause a change in how people react. 

"When we get hot, especially hot, we may feel like we are being threatened," Hauke said. "This going to make us more impulsive, more aggressive.”

The heat coupled with more people on summer break and often outdoors have been theorized reasons behind the increase in violent crime. 

However, in Arizona, the numbers do not find a correlation. In 2017, three out of the four months with the highest violent crime rates were at the end of the year, when temperatures started to drop.

Credit: Tegna

Hauke said in Arizona, with temperatures reaching into the 110s, people may choose to stay inside instead of going out in the proximity of other people. 

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