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Valley rent prices decrease for first time since pandemic, analysts say

Latest analyses show rent is down slightly in the Valley, but a local expert said it's unclear yet if it will continue to drop.

PHOENIX — It’s no secret that rents in the Valley have climbed over the past few years, but now new data shows a slight decrease in rent.

Redfin’s latest analysis found rents declined in Phoenix by about 2% from March 2022 to March 2023. That’s the first annual drop since the pandemic started, according to Redfin.

Rick Merritt, president of Elliott D. Pollack & Company in Scottsdale, found in their data that rents have decreased by about 1.6% in the Valley from 2020 to the end of 2022.

“When you consider that rents are up over the past couple of years, probably 20%, it really doesn't help a whole lot for people looking to rent. It is a decline, it's maybe the start of a trend, but we'll have to see,” Merritt said.

The Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) has looked at Census Bureau data that estimates 30% of households are paying more than 30% of their income on housing expenses.

“That’s way more of our population that is cost-burdened than we would hope,” Scott Wilken, data advisory program manager with MAG, said.

In MAG’s look into housing costs across the board in the region, Wilken said they found rent under $500 had gone away in the Valley, but a higher price point is also shrinking.

“The next bucket we looked at was $500 to $1,000, and those are rapidly going extinct,” Wilken said. “And we’ve seen a big increase in the $1,500 to $2,000 and the $2,000 plus.”

The rents that are most expensive, Wilken said MAG’s analysis found, are coming from newly built complexes.

“We found that units that were built in the last five years are noticeably higher than places older than that,” Wilken said.

The latest data has the average price of rent in the Valley at $1,500.74, according to Merritt. The slight drop in rent also only equals about $26 for the average apartment list price.

Merritt said factors like so many people moving to Maricopa County and an already existing housing shortage, it’s unclear if the decrease in rent will continue.

“Single-family housing or ownership housing is expensive,” Merritt said. “So they have to live somewhere, once again. So a lot of them will go into rental units and that is what is boosting the market.”

Boomtown

In our “Boomtown” series, 12News takes a look at the Valley’s explosive growth over the past few decades, the consequences that came with it and a look at what it all means for our future as more than 1.5 million people are expected to move to the Valley by 2040.

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